QUANT LAB · MONITOR v0.1

연구 운영 모니터

읽기 전용 · 앱 인증 없음 · 실제 주문 없음

A / 운영 개요

운영 상태주의 필요
마지막 스냅샷 갱신 (UTC)2026-10-16T00:17:27.386045+00:00
다음 실행launchd 15분 간격 (정확한 다음 깨움 시각은 미확인)
LaunchAgent로드됨
스냅샷 작성 경로launchd
작업 수 (최근 최대 200)완료 13 · 실패 5 · 대기 0 · 실행 중 0 · 건너뜀 0

마지막 작업 실행: 2026-10-16T00:02:25.907329+00:00

읽기 오류 없음 (수집/모델/작업 성공을 의미하지 않음)

B / 최근 작업

여러 작업에 같은 tick 시작시각이 기록된 과거 행은 개별 실행시간을 추정하지 않습니다.

작업시장대상 날짜상태시도오류 코드장부 시작 (UTC)종료 (UTC)실행 시간 (초)
paperSPY2026-10-15완료3—2026-10-16T00:02:25.907329+00:002026-10-16T00:02:26.863185+00:000.96
briefingKR-US2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:16:57.919143+00:00개별시간 미확인
newsKR-US2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:15:41.208475+00:00개별시간 미확인
predictionDBC2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:15:35.764125+00:00개별시간 미확인
predictionIEMG2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:15:29.561924+00:00개별시간 미확인
predictionGLD2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:15:23.094600+00:00개별시간 미확인
predictionTLT2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:15:16.573940+00:00개별시간 미확인
predictionSPY2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:15:08.992670+00:00개별시간 미확인
evaluationDBC2026-10-15실패3retry_exhausted:observations_pending2026-10-16T00:02:23.567127+00:002026-10-16T00:02:25.906860+00:002.34
evaluationIEMG2026-10-15실패3retry_exhausted:observations_pending2026-10-16T00:02:21.134117+00:002026-10-16T00:02:23.566603+00:002.43
evaluationGLD2026-10-15실패3retry_exhausted:observations_pending2026-10-16T00:02:18.633007+00:002026-10-16T00:02:21.133600+00:002.5
evaluationTLT2026-10-15실패3retry_exhausted:observations_pending2026-10-16T00:02:16.119148+00:002026-10-16T00:02:18.632254+00:002.51
evaluationSPY2026-10-15실패3retry_exhausted:observations_pending2026-10-16T00:02:13.480710+00:002026-10-16T00:02:16.118494+00:002.64
marketDBC2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:14:49.435162+00:00개별시간 미확인
marketIEMG2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:14:48.957902+00:00개별시간 미확인
marketGLD2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:14:48.390587+00:00개별시간 미확인
marketTLT2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:14:47.920266+00:00개별시간 미확인
marketSPY2026-10-15완료1—2026-10-15T23:14:46.870134+00:002026-10-15T23:14:47.455621+00:00개별시간 미확인

C / ETF 최신 실제 AI 예측

실제 AI 관측의 확률/수익률 쌍만 표시 · 정확도는 해당 관측의 방향 일치 (독립 표본 1개)

ETF예측 생성 (UTC)예측 신선도대상일평가 경계 (UTC)실제 평가 기록 (UTC)상승 확률예상 수익률실제 수익률방향 정확도평가 상태평가 신선도
SPY2026-10-15T23:15:08.987508+00:00캘린더 기준 충족2026-10-162026-10-16T20:00:00+00:00—52.00%0.04%— (pending)— (pending)대기평가 대기 (공급자 후속 봉 필요)
TLT2026-10-15T23:15:16.568895+00:00캘린더 기준 충족2026-10-162026-10-16T20:00:00+00:00—51.00%0.03%— (pending)— (pending)대기평가 대기 (공급자 후속 봉 필요)
GLD2026-10-15T23:15:23.088942+00:00캘린더 기준 충족2026-10-162026-10-16T20:00:00+00:00—49.00%-0.06%— (pending)— (pending)대기평가 대기 (공급자 후속 봉 필요)
IEMG2026-10-15T23:15:29.557761+00:00캘린더 기준 충족2026-10-162026-10-16T20:00:00+00:00—48.00%-0.08%— (pending)— (pending)대기평가 대기 (공급자 후속 봉 필요)
DBC2026-10-15T23:15:35.759341+00:00캘린더 기준 충족2026-10-162026-10-16T20:00:00+00:00—53.00%0.08%— (pending)— (pending)대기평가 대기 (공급자 후속 봉 필요)

D / Intelligence 한국어 브리핑

마지막 분석 (UTC): 2026-10-15T23:16:57.900635+00:00 · 캘린더 기준 충족

사실

[
  {
    "claim_id": "F1",
    "source_id": "c44f9a2338d261153f8a",
    "quote": "(세종=연합뉴스) 이대희 송정은 기자 = 9월 취업자가 11만3천명 늘며 석 달째 10만명대 증가를 나타냈다.",
    "measurements": []
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "F2",
    "source_id": "c44f9a2338d261153f8a",
    "quote": "청년층 고용률은 44.0%로 1.1%p 하락했다. 29개월 연속 내림세다.",
    "measurements": [
      {
        "value": "44.0",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "9월",
        "period_quote": "[2보] 9월 취업자 11만3천명↑…제조업 2년3개월만에 증가",
        "quote": "청년층 고용률은 44.0%로 1.1%p 하락했다. 29개월 연속 내림세다."
      },
      {
        "value": "1.1",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "9월",
        "period_quote": "[2보] 9월 취업자 11만3천명↑…제조업 2년3개월만에 증가",
        "quote": "청년층 고용률은 44.0%로 1.1%p 하락했다. 29개월 연속 내림세다."
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "F3",
    "source_id": "4b83ce8080535dd99248",
    "quote": "The Board's process for setting the discount rate is distinct from the process the Federal Open Market Committee follows in setting the target range for the federal funds rate.",
    "measurements": []
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "F4",
    "source_id": "7abc0c1e7c479c77ad7d",
    "quote": "The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee are generally published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting.",
    "measurements": []
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "F5",
    "source_id": "51294e2b4e2727b9f5a2",
    "quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised.",
    "measurements": [
      {
        "value": "105.6",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised.",
        "quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised."
      },
      {
        "value": "12.7",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised.",
        "quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised."
      },
      {
        "value": "92.8",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "July",
        "period_quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised.",
        "quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised."
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "F6",
    "source_id": "a4f49f2d9abc7bd77505",
    "quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate.",
    "measurements": [
      {
        "value": "4.6",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "second quarter",
        "period_quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate.",
        "quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate."
      },
      {
        "value": "0.4",
        "unit": "percentage point",
        "period": "second quarter",
        "period_quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate.",
        "quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate."
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "F7",
    "source_id": "998ac712e0b8c495937d",
    "quote": "The announcement comes a day after Netflix instituted layoffs across its organization, eliminating approximately 6% of its workforce, or roughly 1,000 jobs. Shares of the company are down more than 20% this year, though the stock remained relatively unchanged in extended trading Thursday.",
    "measurements": [
      {
        "value": "6",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "미확인",
        "period_quote": "Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria is leaving, will be replaced by Peter Rice",
        "quote": "The announcement comes a day after Netflix instituted layoffs across its organization, eliminating approximately 6% of its workforce, or roughly 1,000 jobs. Shares of the company are down more than 20% this year, though the stock remained relatively unchanged in extended trading Thursday."
      },
      {
        "value": "20",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "미확인",
        "period_quote": "Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria is leaving, will be replaced by Peter Rice",
        "quote": "The announcement comes a day after Netflix instituted layoffs across its organization, eliminating approximately 6% of its workforce, or roughly 1,000 jobs. Shares of the company are down more than 20% this year, though the stock remained relatively unchanged in extended trading Thursday."
      }
    ]
  }
]

해석

[
  {
    "kind": "analysis",
    "fact_refs": [
      "F1",
      "F2"
    ],
    "reasoning": "추론: 전체 취업자 증가와 청년층 고용률 하락은 고용 개선이 계층별로 고르게 확산되지 않을 가능성을 시사한다. 취업자 수와 특정 연령층의 고용률은 분모와 대상이 달라 직접적인 모순으로 볼 수 없다.",
    "impact": "전체 고용 증가는 가계소득을 통한 소비 방어 요인이 될 수 있지만, 청년층 고용 약화는 해당 계층의 소비와 신용수요를 제약할 수 있다. 국내 소비 관련 자산에는 총량보다 고객층별 수요 차이를 확인하는 접근이 적절하다.",
    "counter_scenario": "다른 연령층의 소득 증가가 청년층의 소비 위축을 상쇄하거나 청년층 고용률 변화가 인구구조와 경제활동 참여 변화에 크게 좌우된다면 소비 약화 해석은 제한될 수 있다.",
    "confidence": "중간: 고용 지표의 엇갈림은 근거가 있으나 임금, 근로시간, 연령별 소비와 고용률 분모 자료가 없어 소비 전달 강도는 판단하기 어렵다."
  },
  {
    "kind": "analysis",
    "fact_refs": [
      "F3",
      "F4"
    ],
    "reasoning": "추론: 할인율 결정 절차를 연방기금금리 목표 결정과 동일시해서는 안 되며, 의사록은 회의 당시 정보에 대한 기록으로 해석해야 한다. 공개 사실이나 절차 설명만으로 현재의 긴축·완화 방향을 도출할 수 없다.",
    "impact": "국채와 달러의 방향을 판단하려면 실제 정책 논의와 이후 경제지표가 필요하다. 과거 의사록 공개를 새로운 정책 결정으로 오인하면 채권 듀레이션이나 환율 노출 판단이 왜곡될 수 있다.",
    "counter_scenario": "향후 공개되는 구체적인 정책 논의가 이후 지표와 일치한다면 의사록이 금리 기대를 해석하는 유효한 보조 근거가 될 수 있다.",
    "confidence": "높음: 절차 차이와 정보 시차에 관한 해석은 직접적인 근거가 있다. 다만 금리와 환율의 방향성 판단에는 근거가 부족하다."
  },
  {
    "kind": "analysis",
    "fact_refs": [
      "F5",
      "F6"
    ],
    "reasoning": "추론: 무역적자 확대와 민간 국내 최종수요 증가는 경제 전반의 약화를 단선적으로 주장하기 어렵게 한다. 국내 수요가 수입을 견인했을 가능성은 있지만, 관측기간이 다르고 무역적자 인용만으로 구성 요인을 분리할 수 없어 인과관계는 확정할 수 없다.",
    "impact": "수요의 지속성이 확인되면 기업 매출 기대에는 우호적일 수 있으나, 금리 인하 기대를 약화시켜 채권 가격과 주식 할인율에는 부담이 될 수 있다. 무역수지만으로 달러나 한국 수출주의 방향을 정하기는 어렵다.",
    "counter_scenario": "무역적자 확대가 일시적인 수입 시점 이동에 따른 것이거나 이후 민간 수요가 둔화한다면 수요 강세를 전제로 한 자산 해석은 약해질 수 있다.",
    "confidence": "낮음: 서로 다른 관측기간의 거시자료이며 수입 품목, 물량, 가격과 후속 수요 지표가 부족하다."
  },
  {
    "kind": "analysis",
    "fact_refs": [
      "F7"
    ],
    "reasoning": "추론: 인력 감축은 비용 효율화와 사업 여건 약화라는 상반된 해석이 가능하다. 누적 주가 흐름과 발표 직후 시간외 반응은 관측기간이 달라, 이를 동일한 뉴스 효과로 합쳐 해석해서는 안 된다.",
    "impact": "넷플릭스 주식에는 비용 절감에 따른 수익성 개선 기대와 실행 과정의 콘텐츠 경쟁력 저하 우려가 함께 작용할 수 있다. 회사별 실적 확인 없이 미국 기술주 전반으로 영향을 확장하기는 어렵다.",
    "counter_scenario": "비용 절감이 매출 성장이나 서비스 경쟁력을 훼손하지 않고 이익으로 연결된다면 구조조정의 부정적 해석보다 효율화 기대가 우세할 수 있다.",
    "confidence": "낮음: 회사 관련 직접 보도는 있지만 매출, 현금흐름, 비용 절감 계획과 주가 변동 원인에 관한 자료가 없다."
  },
  {
    "kind": "analysis",
    "fact_refs": [
      "F5",
      "F6"
    ],
    "reasoning": "추론: 미국 수요가 한국 수출과 위험선호에 전달될 수 있다는 경로는 간접적인 경제 가설에 해당한다. 이 거시 근거를 한국 증시 급락과 미국 반도체 움직임의 직접 연결 근거로 사용할 수는 없다.",
    "impact": "향후 미국 반도체 수요와 가격 흐름이 확인될 경우 한국 관련 업종으로 실적 기대와 투자심리가 전달될 가능성을 검토할 수 있다. 현재 근거만으로 한국 시장의 하락 원인이나 미국 반도체의 영향 기여도를 추정하지 않는다.",
    "counter_scenario": "향후 한국 시장이 미국 반도체와 다른 방향으로 움직이거나 국내 업종 실적과 수급이 더 밀접하게 대응한다면 공통 해외 요인 중심의 설명은 약해질 수 있다.",
    "confidence": "낮음: 한국 지수와 미국 반도체의 가격·거래시각·수급 및 업종별 실적에 관한 직접 근거가 제공되지 않았다."
  }
]

가설

[
  {
    "kind": "conditional",
    "fact_refs": [
      "F1",
      "F2"
    ],
    "asset": "국내 소비 관련 주식",
    "scenario": "청년층 고용 약화가 이어지고 관련 소비지표도 동반 둔화한다면 청년 고객 비중이 높은 소비 업종의 상대수익률에 하방 압력이 생길 수 있다.",
    "horizon": {
      "kind": "future_window",
      "text": "앞으로 고용과 소비의 후속 발표를 함께 관찰할 기간",
      "duration": {
        "min": 1,
        "max": 3,
        "unit": "개월"
      }
    },
    "verification": {
      "kind": "future_condition",
      "text": "향후 청년층 고용과 해당 고객층의 소비가 함께 약화되고 관련 기업의 매출 전망도 하향되는지 확인",
      "thresholds": []
    },
    "falsification": {
      "kind": "future_condition",
      "text": "향후 청년층 고용이 개선되거나 다른 고객층의 수요가 소비 둔화를 상쇄해 관련 기업의 매출 전망이 유지되는지 확인",
      "thresholds": []
    }
  },
  {
    "kind": "conditional",
    "fact_refs": [
      "F3",
      "F4",
      "F6"
    ],
    "asset": "미국 국채",
    "scenario": "후속 민간 수요가 견조하고 실제 정책 소통에서도 완화에 신중한 태도가 확인된다면 금리 인하 기대 후퇴를 통해 국채 가격에 하방 압력이 생길 수 있다.",
    "horizon": {
      "kind": "future_window",
      "text": "앞으로 후속 수요지표와 정책 소통을 대조할 기간",
      "duration": {
        "min": 1,
        "max": 3,
        "unit": "개월"
      }
    },
    "verification": {
      "kind": "future_condition",
      "text": "향후 민간 수요의 견조함과 정책 완화 기대의 후퇴가 함께 확인되는지 관찰",
      "thresholds": []
    },
    "falsification": {
      "kind": "future_condition",
      "text": "향후 수요 둔화와 물가 압력 완화가 나타나 정책 완화 기대가 강화되는지 확인",
      "thresholds": []
    }
  },
  {
    "kind": "conditional",
    "fact_refs": [
      "F7"
    ],
    "asset": "넷플릭스 주식",
    "scenario": "인력 감축 이후 매출 성장과 콘텐츠 경쟁력이 유지되고 비용 절감이 현금흐름 개선으로 연결된다면 주가 재평가에 우호적일 수 있다.",
    "horizon": {
      "kind": "future_window",
      "text": "앞으로 실적 발표와 구조조정 후속 설명을 관찰할 기간",
      "duration": {
        "min": 1,
        "max": 3,
        "unit": "개월"
      }
    },
    "verification": {
      "kind": "future_condition",
      "text": "향후 매출 성장의 유지와 비용 효율 개선이 현금흐름에 함께 반영되는지 확인",
      "thresholds": []
    },
    "falsification": {
      "kind": "future_condition",
      "text": "향후 콘텐츠 경쟁력이나 매출 전망이 약화되고 구조조정 비용이 절감 효과를 상쇄하는지 확인",
      "thresholds": []
    }
  }
]
출처 / 수집시각 / 접근 한계
[
  {
    "id": "c44f9a2338d261153f8a",
    "category": "kr_news",
    "title": "[2보] 9월 취업자 11만3천명↑…제조업 2년3개월만에 증가",
    "url": "https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20261016015951002",
    "published_at": "2026-10-15T23:00:07+00:00",
    "collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:15:35.765990+00:00",
    "access": "body-excerpts",
    "measurements": [
      {
        "value": "44.0",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "9월",
        "period_quote": "[2보] 9월 취업자 11만3천명↑…제조업 2년3개월만에 증가",
        "quote": "청년층 고용률은 44.0%로 1.1%p 하락했다. 29개월 연속 내림세다."
      },
      {
        "value": "1.1",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "9월",
        "period_quote": "[2보] 9월 취업자 11만3천명↑…제조업 2년3개월만에 증가",
        "quote": "청년층 고용률은 44.0%로 1.1%p 하락했다. 29개월 연속 내림세다."
      },
      {
        "value": "2.0",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "9월",
        "period_quote": "[2보] 9월 취업자 11만3천명↑…제조업 2년3개월만에 증가",
        "quote": "전체 실업자는 60만명으로 지난해 같은 달보다 3만4천명 줄었다. 실업률은 2.0%로 0.1%p 하락했다."
      },
      {
        "value": "0.1",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "9월",
        "period_quote": "[2보] 9월 취업자 11만3천명↑…제조업 2년3개월만에 증가",
        "quote": "전체 실업자는 60만명으로 지난해 같은 달보다 3만4천명 줄었다. 실업률은 2.0%로 0.1%p 하락했다."
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "5f1f8a8e287b38c96772",
    "category": "kr_news",
    "title": "[1보] 9월 취업자 11만3천명 늘어…석 달째 10만명대↑",
    "url": "https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20261016015900002",
    "published_at": "2026-10-15T23:00:02+00:00",
    "collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:15:35.765990+00:00",
    "access": "body-excerpts",
    "measurements": []
  },
  {
    "id": "efc4bdfe5ee04616394d",
    "category": "us_news",
    "title": "A lot changed in stock market in just a few months. The single biggest risk did not",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/spx-sp500-tech-stocks-invest.html",
    "published_at": "2026-10-15T23:12:24+00:00",
    "collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:15:35.765990+00:00",
    "access": "title-only",
    "measurements": []
  },
  {
    "id": "998ac712e0b8c495937d",
    "category": "us_news",
    "title": "Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria is leaving, will be replaced by Peter Rice",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/netflix-bela-bajaria-peter-rice.html",
    "published_at": "2026-10-15T23:08:05+00:00",
    "collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:15:35.765990+00:00",
    "access": "body-excerpts",
    "measurements": [
      {
        "value": "6",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "미확인",
        "period_quote": "Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria is leaving, will be replaced by Peter Rice",
        "quote": "The announcement comes a day after Netflix instituted layoffs across its organization, eliminating approximately 6% of its workforce, or roughly 1,000 jobs. Shares of the company are down more than 20% this year, though the stock remained relatively unchanged in extended trading Thursday."
      },
      {
        "value": "20",
        "unit": "%",
        "period": "미확인",
        "period_quote": "Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria is leaving, will be replaced by Peter Rice",
        "quote": "The announcement comes a day after Netflix instituted layoffs across its organization, eliminating approximately 6% of its workforce, or roughly 1,000 jobs. Shares of the company are down more than 20% this year, though the stock remained relatively unchanged in extended trading Thursday."
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "4b83ce8080535dd99248",
    "category": "fed",
    "title": "Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026",
    "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261013a.htm",
    "published_at": "2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00",
    "collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:15:35.765990+00:00",
    "access": "body-excerpts",
    "measurements": []
  },
  {
    "id": "7abc0c1e7c479c77ad7d",
    "category": "fed",
    "title": "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026",
    "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261007a.htm",
    "published_at": "2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00",
    "collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:15:35.765990+00:00",
    "access": "body-excerpts",
    "measurements": []
  },
  {
    "id": "51294e2b4e2727b9f5a2",
    "category": "macro",
    "title": "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026",
    "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-august-2026",
    "published_at": "2026-10-06T12:30:00+00:00",
    "collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:15:35.765990+00:00",
    "access": "body-excerpts",
    "measurements": [
      {
        "value": "105.6",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised.",
        "quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised."
      },
      {
        "value": "12.7",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised.",
        "quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised."
      },
      {
        "value": "92.8",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "July",
        "period_quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised.",
        "quote": "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from $92.8 billion in July, revised."
      },
      {
        "value": "315.2",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports.",
        "quote": "August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports."
      },
      {
        "value": "4.5",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "July",
        "period_quote": "August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports.",
        "quote": "August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports."
      },
      {
        "value": "420.8",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports.",
        "quote": "August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports."
      },
      {
        "value": "17.2",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "July",
        "period_quote": "August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports.",
        "quote": "August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports."
      },
      {
        "value": "12.8",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion.",
        "quote": "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion."
      },
      {
        "value": "136.6",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion.",
        "quote": "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion."
      },
      {
        "value": "0.1",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion.",
        "quote": "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion."
      },
      {
        "value": "31.0",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August",
        "period_quote": "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion.",
        "quote": "The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion."
      },
      {
        "value": "138.2",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August 2026",
        "period_quote": "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026",
        "quote": "Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $138.2 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $267.7 billion or 11.8 percent. Imports increased $129.5 billion or 4.4 percent."
      },
      {
        "value": "19.9",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "August 2026",
        "period_quote": "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026",
        "quote": "Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $138.2 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $267.7 billion or 11.8 percent. Imports increased $129.5 billion or 4.4 percent."
      },
      {
        "value": "267.7",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August 2026",
        "period_quote": "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026",
        "quote": "Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $138.2 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $267.7 billion or 11.8 percent. Imports increased $129.5 billion or 4.4 percent."
      },
      {
        "value": "11.8",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "August 2026",
        "period_quote": "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026",
        "quote": "Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $138.2 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $267.7 billion or 11.8 percent. Imports increased $129.5 billion or 4.4 percent."
      },
      {
        "value": "129.5",
        "unit": "billion",
        "period": "August 2026",
        "period_quote": "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026",
        "quote": "Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $138.2 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $267.7 billion or 11.8 percent. Imports increased $129.5 billion or 4.4 percent."
      },
      {
        "value": "4.4",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "August 2026",
        "period_quote": "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026",
        "quote": "Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $138.2 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $267.7 billion or 11.8 percent. Imports increased $129.5 billion or 4.4 percent."
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "a4f49f2d9abc7bd77505",
    "category": "macro",
    "title": "GDP, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025",
    "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd",
    "published_at": "2026-09-30T12:30:00+00:00",
    "collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:15:35.765990+00:00",
    "access": "body-excerpts",
    "measurements": [
      {
        "value": "2.2",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "second quarter",
        "period_quote": "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised).",
        "quote": "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised)."
      },
      {
        "value": "2.5",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "first quarter",
        "period_quote": "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised).",
        "quote": "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised)."
      },
      {
        "value": "0.7",
        "unit": "percentage point",
        "period": "2nd Quarter 2026",
        "period_quote": "GDP, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025",
        "quote": "Real GDP was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending. For more information, refer to the \" Technical Notes \" below"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.5",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "2nd Quarter 2026",
        "period_quote": "GDP, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025",
        "quote": "From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in real value added of 2.5 percent for private services-producing industries, 2.3 percent for private goods-producing industries, and less than 0.1 percent for government . The leading industry contributors to the increase in real GDP were real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance. The leading offsets were decreases in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable goods manufacturing."
      },
      {
        "value": "2.3",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "2nd Quarter 2026",
        "period_quote": "GDP, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025",
        "quote": "From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in real value added of 2.5 percent for private services-producing industries, 2.3 percent for private goods-producing industries, and less than 0.1 percent for government . The leading industry contributors to the increase in real GDP were real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance. The leading offsets were decreases in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable goods manufacturing."
      },
      {
        "value": "0.1",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "2nd Quarter 2026",
        "period_quote": "GDP, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025",
        "quote": "From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in real value added of 2.5 percent for private services-producing industries, 2.3 percent for private goods-producing industries, and less than 0.1 percent for government . The leading industry contributors to the increase in real GDP were real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance. The leading offsets were decreases in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable goods manufacturing."
      },
      {
        "value": "4.6",
        "unit": "percent",
        "period": "second quarter",
        "period_quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate.",
        "quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate."
      },
      {
        "value": "0.4",
        "unit": "percentage point",
        "period": "second quarter",
        "period_quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate.",
        "quote": "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate."
      }
    ]
  }
]

누락·한계

[
  "한국 증시 급락 자체를 확인할 지수 자료와 미국 반도체 가격·실적 자료가 없어 두 시장의 직접 연계, 선후관계, 원인 및 영향 기여도를 판단할 수 없다.",
  "한국 정책금리 결정문, 물가, 채권금리, 환율과 시장 수급 자료가 없어 국내 금리 및 자산시장 방향을 확정하는 일일 브리핑에는 한계가 있다.",
  "연준 자료는 제공된 절차 설명과 의사록 공개 안내에 한정된다. 실제 정책금리 수준이나 정책위원의 구체적인 판단을 확인한 것으로 해석하지 않았다.",
  "미국 주식시장 위험에 관한 기사는 제목만 제공되어 위험의 정체나 본문 논지를 확인할 수 없다. 이를 반도체 위험이나 한국 시장 하락의 근거로 사용하지 않았다.",
  "거시자료의 관측기간과 기업 뉴스의 반응 구간이 달라 동시적인 시장 충격으로 합칠 수 없다. 과거 자료가 현재 가격에 얼마나 반영됐는지도 확인되지 않았다.",
  "입력의 측정 객체를 수정하지 않았다. 청년 고용률 변동의 인용문 표기와 측정 객체 단위 사이에 차이가 있고, 넷플릭스 측정 객체의 관측기간은 미확인으로 제시되어 있어 원문 인용과 함께 해석해야 한다.",
  "취업자 증가 인용문에 대응하는 별도 측정 객체는 입력에 없어 빈 목록으로 두었다. 제공된 발췌는 전수조사나 회사 공시 검증을 대체하지 않는다.",
  "정확 인용·출처·수치 결합과 일부 현재사실 표현을 검사하지만 자유 해석의 의미적 환각이나 인과관계를 완전히 검증하지는 못합니다.",
  "질문 관련 기존 피드 최대 60건/범주를 순위화, 최대 2건/범주 본문 조회. 전수조사·검색·회사공시 수집 아님.",
  "발표시각이 기준일 이후인 자료는 배제하나 원문 수정 이력은 재현하지 못함. 과거 질문의 완전한 당시 스냅샷 아님.",
  "관측기간은 인용문 또는 제목의 가까운 기간 표기를 기계 추출; 지표 의미·수정치·전망치 여부는 인용문과 함께 확인 필요.",
  "일부 출처는 원문 접근 실패로 title-only이며 본문·지표 확인이 제한됩니다."
]

E / 모의 포트폴리오

A Buy&Hold · B SPY 60% / KRW 현금 40% · C Volatility targeting pending. 실제 체결/실계좌 성과가 아닙니다.

A / Buy & Hold — 완료

초기 자본 (KRW)평가금액 (KRW)누적 수익률관측 MDD현금 비중주식 비중위험
1000000.0999000.9990009991-0.10%-0.10%0.00%100.00%{ "drawdown": -0.0009990009990008542, "initial_pnl_krw": -999.0009990008548, "initial_return": -0.0009990009990008542, "nav_krw": 999000.9990009991, "peak_krw": 1000000.0, "policy": { "halt": 0.2, "no_buy": 0.1, "reduce": 0.15, "reduction_fraction": 0.5, "version": "risk-v1", "warn": 0.05 }, "state": "normal" }

마지막 시장 관측 (UTC): 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00 · 캘린더 기준 충족

평가 기준 / 기록 (UTC): 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00 / 2026-10-16T00:02:26.854287+00:00 · 캘린더 기준 충족

최근 모의 결정 / 모의 체결
{
  "결정": [
    {
      "account": "A",
      "cash_weight": 1.0,
      "day": "2026-10-15",
      "decided_at": "2026-10-15T12:08:17.056073+00:00",
      "forward_claim": "none: local clock and provider/import not attested",
      "fx_at": "2026-10-14T23:00:00.000000+00:00",
      "fx_source": "Yahoo KRW=X daily close; conservative start+24h; KRW/USD",
      "held_weight": 0.0,
      "id": "A:2026-10-15",
      "input_collected_at": "2026-10-15T12:08:10.080062+00:00",
      "input_hash": "db55d555ffc2347c247738b5a6e96d63a71a8a38cbf72faa262d50417bc14cd5",
      "kind": "public",
      "observation": "ea8f158e48df46a5b11343a7f8f208c3ca67a63ffe6861f0f265a7d332e9442a",
      "price_at": "2026-10-14T20:00:00.000000+00:00",
      "price_source": "Yahoo SPY unadjusted daily close; conservative 16:00 NY",
      "price_usd": 769.5999755859375,
      "rationale": "fixed strategy; deterministic risk override; later observation only",
      "risk": {
        "drawdown": 0.0,
        "initial_pnl_krw": 0.0,
        "initial_return": 0.0,
        "nav_krw": 1000000.0,
        "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
        "policy": {
          "halt": 0.2,
          "no_buy": 0.1,
          "reduce": 0.15,
          "reduction_fraction": 0.5,
          "version": "risk-v1",
          "warn": 0.05
        },
        "state": "normal"
      },
      "strategy": {
        "id": "buy_hold",
        "status": "active",
        "target": 1.0,
        "version": "1"
      },
      "target_weight": 1.0,
      "usdkrw": 1340.31005859375
    },
    {
      "account": "A",
      "cash_weight": 0.0,
      "day": "2026-10-16",
      "decided_at": "2026-10-16T00:02:26.854287+00:00",
      "forward_claim": "none: local clock and provider/import not attested",
      "fx_at": "2026-10-15T23:00:00.000000+00:00",
      "fx_source": "Yahoo KRW=X daily close; conservative start+24h; KRW/USD",
      "held_weight": 1.0,
      "id": "A:2026-10-16",
      "input_collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:16:58.860758+00:00",
      "input_hash": "53ac8e3b41e8d4650f5e7cd675758d1418b4ddc46578658dd536cfc799a17d69",
      "kind": "public",
      "max_qty": 0.9664351420396954,
      "observation": "be9b1f5f7bcba3ad9b30c7cefa926e59872718e633a3bcfeaf529d8aa7759993",
      "order_intent": "hold_quantity",
      "price_at": "2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00",
      "price_source": "Yahoo SPY unadjusted daily close; conservative 16:00 NY",
      "price_usd": 771.7899780273438,
      "rationale": "fixed strategy; deterministic risk override; later observation only",
      "risk": {
        "drawdown": -0.0009990009990008542,
        "initial_pnl_krw": -999.0009990008548,
        "initial_return": -0.0009990009990008542,
        "nav_krw": 999000.9990009991,
        "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
        "policy": {
          "halt": 0.2,
          "no_buy": 0.1,
          "reduce": 0.15,
          "reduction_fraction": 0.5,
          "version": "risk-v1",
          "warn": 0.05
        },
        "state": "normal"
      },
      "strategy": {
        "id": "buy_hold",
        "status": "active",
        "target": 1.0,
        "version": "1"
      },
      "target_weight": 1.0,
      "usdkrw": 1339.3499755859375
    }
  ],
  "모의 체결": [
    {
      "account": "A",
      "cash_krw": 0.0,
      "cash_weight": 0.0,
      "cost_components": {
        "fee_krw": 499.5004995004996,
        "slippage_krw": 299.70029970029975,
        "spread_krw": 199.80019980019983
      },
      "cost_krw": 999.0009990009992,
      "cost_policy": {
        "fee_bps": 5,
        "slippage_bps": 3,
        "spread_bps": 2,
        "version": "cost-v1"
      },
      "cost_threshold_buy_block": false,
      "cumulative_cost_krw": 999.0009990009992,
      "delta_qty": 0.9664351420396954,
      "effective_target": 1.0,
      "execution_guard": "normal",
      "fill_model": "full fractional close-proxy simulation; no volume/partial execution model",
      "filled_weight": 1.0,
      "halted": false,
      "id": "A:2026-10-15",
      "input_hash": "53ac8e3b41e8d4650f5e7cd675758d1418b4ddc46578658dd536cfc799a17d69",
      "kind": "public",
      "mdd": -0.0009990009990008542,
      "nav_krw": 999000.9990009991,
      "nominal_krw": 999000.9990009991,
      "observation": "be9b1f5f7bcba3ad9b30c7cefa926e59872718e633a3bcfeaf529d8aa7759993",
      "order_intent": "rebalance",
      "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
      "performance_type": "unattested prospective OHLCV paper simulation",
      "pre_risk": {
        "drawdown": 0.0,
        "initial_pnl_krw": 0.0,
        "initial_return": 0.0,
        "nav_krw": 1000000.0,
        "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
        "policy": {
          "halt": 0.2,
          "no_buy": 0.1,
          "reduce": 0.15,
          "reduction_fraction": 0.5,
          "version": "risk-v1",
          "warn": 0.05
        },
        "state": "normal"
      },
      "price_usd": 771.7899780273438,
      "qty": 0.9664351420396954,
      "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T00:02:26.854287+00:00",
      "risk": {
        "drawdown": -0.0009990009990008542,
        "initial_pnl_krw": -999.0009990008548,
        "initial_return": -0.0009990009990008542,
        "nav_krw": 999000.9990009991,
        "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
        "policy": {
          "halt": 0.2,
          "no_buy": 0.1,
          "reduce": 0.15,
          "reduction_fraction": 0.5,
          "version": "risk-v1",
          "warn": 0.05
        },
        "state": "normal"
      },
      "risk_reduction_deferred": false,
      "usd_notice": "price-only research change, NOT KRW account or total return",
      "usd_price_return_since_signal": 0.00284563735821175,
      "usdkrw": 1339.3499755859375,
      "valuation_at": "2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00"
    }
  ]
}

B / SPY 60% / KRW 현금 40% — 완료

초기 자본 (KRW)평가금액 (KRW)누적 수익률관측 MDD현금 비중주식 비중위험
1000000.0999400.3597841295-0.06%-0.06%40.00%60.00%{ "drawdown": -0.000599640215870445, "initial_pnl_krw": -599.6402158704586, "initial_return": -0.000599640215870445, "nav_krw": 999400.3597841295, "peak_krw": 1000000.0, "policy": { "halt": 0.2, "no_buy": 0.1, "reduce": 0.15, "reduction_fraction": 0.5, "version": "risk-v1", "warn": 0.05 }, "state": "normal" }

마지막 시장 관측 (UTC): 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00 · 캘린더 기준 충족

평가 기준 / 기록 (UTC): 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00 / 2026-10-16T00:02:26.854287+00:00 · 캘린더 기준 충족

최근 모의 결정 / 모의 체결
{
  "결정": [
    {
      "account": "B",
      "cash_weight": 1.0,
      "day": "2026-10-15",
      "decided_at": "2026-10-15T12:08:17.056073+00:00",
      "forward_claim": "none: local clock and provider/import not attested",
      "fx_at": "2026-10-14T23:00:00.000000+00:00",
      "fx_source": "Yahoo KRW=X daily close; conservative start+24h; KRW/USD",
      "held_weight": 0.0,
      "id": "B:2026-10-15",
      "input_collected_at": "2026-10-15T12:08:10.080062+00:00",
      "input_hash": "db55d555ffc2347c247738b5a6e96d63a71a8a38cbf72faa262d50417bc14cd5",
      "kind": "public",
      "observation": "ea8f158e48df46a5b11343a7f8f208c3ca67a63ffe6861f0f265a7d332e9442a",
      "price_at": "2026-10-14T20:00:00.000000+00:00",
      "price_source": "Yahoo SPY unadjusted daily close; conservative 16:00 NY",
      "price_usd": 769.5999755859375,
      "rationale": "fixed strategy; deterministic risk override; later observation only",
      "risk": {
        "drawdown": 0.0,
        "initial_pnl_krw": 0.0,
        "initial_return": 0.0,
        "nav_krw": 1000000.0,
        "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
        "policy": {
          "halt": 0.2,
          "no_buy": 0.1,
          "reduce": 0.15,
          "reduction_fraction": 0.5,
          "version": "risk-v1",
          "warn": 0.05
        },
        "state": "normal"
      },
      "strategy": {
        "id": "daily_60_40",
        "status": "active",
        "target": 0.6,
        "version": "1"
      },
      "target_weight": 0.6,
      "usdkrw": 1340.31005859375
    },
    {
      "account": "B",
      "cash_weight": 0.4,
      "day": "2026-10-16",
      "decided_at": "2026-10-16T00:02:26.854287+00:00",
      "forward_claim": "none: local clock and provider/import not attested",
      "fx_at": "2026-10-15T23:00:00.000000+00:00",
      "fx_source": "Yahoo KRW=X daily close; conservative start+24h; KRW/USD",
      "held_weight": 0.6,
      "id": "B:2026-10-16",
      "input_collected_at": "2026-10-15T23:16:58.860758+00:00",
      "input_hash": "53ac8e3b41e8d4650f5e7cd675758d1418b4ddc46578658dd536cfc799a17d69",
      "kind": "public",
      "max_qty": null,
      "observation": "be9b1f5f7bcba3ad9b30c7cefa926e59872718e633a3bcfeaf529d8aa7759993",
      "order_intent": "rebalance",
      "price_at": "2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00",
      "price_source": "Yahoo SPY unadjusted daily close; conservative 16:00 NY",
      "price_usd": 771.7899780273438,
      "rationale": "fixed strategy; deterministic risk override; later observation only",
      "risk": {
        "drawdown": -0.000599640215870445,
        "initial_pnl_krw": -599.6402158704586,
        "initial_return": -0.000599640215870445,
        "nav_krw": 999400.3597841295,
        "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
        "policy": {
          "halt": 0.2,
          "no_buy": 0.1,
          "reduce": 0.15,
          "reduction_fraction": 0.5,
          "version": "risk-v1",
          "warn": 0.05
        },
        "state": "normal"
      },
      "strategy": {
        "id": "daily_60_40",
        "status": "active",
        "target": 0.6,
        "version": "1"
      },
      "target_weight": 0.6,
      "usdkrw": 1339.3499755859375
    }
  ],
  "모의 체결": [
    {
      "account": "B",
      "cash_krw": 399760.1439136518,
      "cash_weight": 0.4,
      "cost_components": {
        "fee_krw": 299.82010793523887,
        "slippage_krw": 179.89206476114333,
        "spread_krw": 119.92804317409555
      },
      "cost_krw": 599.6402158704777,
      "cost_policy": {
        "fee_bps": 5,
        "slippage_bps": 3,
        "spread_bps": 2,
        "version": "cost-v1"
      },
      "cost_threshold_buy_block": false,
      "cumulative_cost_krw": 599.6402158704777,
      "delta_qty": 0.5800928905746962,
      "effective_target": 0.6,
      "execution_guard": "normal",
      "fill_model": "full fractional close-proxy simulation; no volume/partial execution model",
      "filled_weight": 0.6,
      "halted": false,
      "id": "B:2026-10-15",
      "input_hash": "53ac8e3b41e8d4650f5e7cd675758d1418b4ddc46578658dd536cfc799a17d69",
      "kind": "public",
      "mdd": -0.000599640215870445,
      "nav_krw": 999400.3597841295,
      "nominal_krw": 599640.2158704777,
      "observation": "be9b1f5f7bcba3ad9b30c7cefa926e59872718e633a3bcfeaf529d8aa7759993",
      "order_intent": "rebalance",
      "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
      "performance_type": "unattested prospective OHLCV paper simulation",
      "pre_risk": {
        "drawdown": 0.0,
        "initial_pnl_krw": 0.0,
        "initial_return": 0.0,
        "nav_krw": 1000000.0,
        "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
        "policy": {
          "halt": 0.2,
          "no_buy": 0.1,
          "reduce": 0.15,
          "reduction_fraction": 0.5,
          "version": "risk-v1",
          "warn": 0.05
        },
        "state": "normal"
      },
      "price_usd": 771.7899780273438,
      "qty": 0.5800928905746962,
      "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T00:02:26.854287+00:00",
      "risk": {
        "drawdown": -0.000599640215870445,
        "initial_pnl_krw": -599.6402158704586,
        "initial_return": -0.000599640215870445,
        "nav_krw": 999400.3597841295,
        "peak_krw": 1000000.0,
        "policy": {
          "halt": 0.2,
          "no_buy": 0.1,
          "reduce": 0.15,
          "reduction_fraction": 0.5,
          "version": "risk-v1",
          "warn": 0.05
        },
        "state": "normal"
      },
      "risk_reduction_deferred": false,
      "usd_notice": "price-only research change, NOT KRW account or total return",
      "usd_price_return_since_signal": 0.00284563735821175,
      "usdkrw": 1339.3499755859375,
      "valuation_at": "2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00"
    }
  ]
}

C / Volatility targeting (pending) — 대기

초기 자본 (KRW)평가금액 (KRW)누적 수익률관측 MDD현금 비중주식 비중위험
1000000.01000000.0— (pending)— (pending)100.00%0.00%pending

마지막 시장 관측 (UTC): 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000000+00:00 · 캘린더 기준 충족

평가 기준 / 기록 (UTC): — / — · 신선도 미확인

평가 전 금액은 초기 장부 금액이며 최신 시장 평가금액이 아닙니다. C는 전략 미활성 pending입니다.

최근 모의 결정 / 모의 체결
{
  "결정": [],
  "모의 체결": []
}